RE/MAX Real Estate Blog

As mid-summer statistics roll in a small but noticeable decline in residential sales figures can be detected. This slowing of sales is particularly noticeable when compared to figures from the same time last year, when the market was unusually strong in the face of growing economic difficulties present in Alberta and throughout the country.

The present state of the market, as summarized by Steve Sedgwick, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair, is a tension between sales figures and prices:

“Although June’s residential unit sales are up slightly over May, we did not see the numbers set in June of 2015. Also notable is that the sustained lull in sales we have seen over the past two years has not been reflected in average price. Continued sales of higher priced properties in the region have helped keep average prices strong.”

In month over month comparisons of residences sold, there was no change from May to June of this year, however there was a distinct decline of 11.1% from June of 2015. A total of 1,117 single family homes sold in June, where May saw a comparable 1,119 sales. This category of residence fell 10.1% from the same time last year.  Condominiums saw a positive incline in month over month figures, rising 11.5% to see a total of 465 units sold, yet this still shows a drop of 18.7% from 2015 sales.  Conversely, the category of duplex/rowhouse showed a noticeable improvement in sales since June of 2015, but a sharp month over month decline. While the 173 residences sold show a 9.8% increase from the same time last year, this represents a 14.8% drop from month previous.

As mentioned by Sedgwick, in terms of sale prices, there has been little change in year over year figures despite the change in quantities sold. An average increase of 0.1% can be determined when comparing 2015 sales figures, for a monthly average residential sale price of $435, 366. Single family home prices dropped 1.1% from May on average, and 1.8% from this time last year. Average condominium prices saw an slight rise of 3.5% putting the average price at $236, 326. This is a 3.5% increase from June 2015. The EREB explained away this anomaly in their reports, stating that, “the average condo price was bolstered by the sale of several luxury properties”, therefore this likely doesn’t represent a trend of incline. Duplex/rowhouse units averaged $352, 778 which is a year over year increase of 4.6%, and a month over month increase of just 0.7%.

In terms of inventory in the Edmonton CMA, Sedgwick had this to report,

“Inventory remains high and buyers continue to have good selection…This is welcome particularly to those looking in the popular $350,000 to $450,000 single family price range.”

The June market saw 3,041 new listings, a 6% decline from May, and a 4.7% decline from the year previous. There were 8179 residences on market when June came to a close, which represents a significant increase of 7177 residences in 2015.

Days on market have remained relatively steady, which a monthly average of 53 days. This is a change of only 1 day less than May, and 4 days more than June of last year. Single family homes took an average of 50 days to sell, condominiums an average of 58 days, and duplex/rowhouses an average of 53 days.

EREB has declared single family detached home sales to be on the rise coming out of the Edmonton spring months. The expected seasonal upswing has particular impacted residences of this style, with an unexpected upswing of 19.3% month over month. Even in the face of economic uncertainty year over year figures have continued to show growth, with a 3.8% year over year increase in the single family home category.

These staggering figures reaffirm the resilience of the YEG market we have seen time and time again over the past year, with sales statistics in all areas showing gains.

May saw 1119 single family homes sold, followed by 203 duplexes and rowhouses sold, which is a sales increase of a whopping 37.2% a 23.03% year over year increase). Condo sales, the slowest residential category, were the only residence to show year over year declines (18.2%) however were up over 5% in month over month figure. This brought the average sales for all residences down just less than 1% from the same time last year, however a total of 1771 residences sold last month, an 18% increase coming into the summer months.

The increase in residential sales has brought with it a much needed slowing of inventory gains. Relationally these figures show a balancing out of the Edmonton CMA market, which is crucial to avoid oversaturation of properties. This creates a market environment that works for both buyer and seller needs.

New listings decreased 2.5% from the same time last year, which just less than 1% from the month previous. The sales-to-listing ratio was 61% for single family homes, 73% for duplex/rowhouses, and 40% for condominiums. The EREB reported that these numbers indicate “condo properties are entering a buyer’s market”, with aforementioned the sales-to-listing ratio showing a 13% decline from the same time last year (but a slight 2% month over month increase). The single family home ratio remained identical to May of last year, which was a 10% bump month over month, while duplex/rowhouse figures rose a staggering 22% from last month, which is still a 13% decline from May of 2015. All in all the YEG market saw 3,233 new properties listed last month in all categories.

“While new listings coming onto the market were down this May compared to 2015, inventory continues to remain strong with more than 8,000 residential properties on the market at month’s end,” Says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Steve Sedgwick. “The fact that we haven’t seen a significant decline in prices is giving buyers more assurance. They are making purchases based on market stability and good selection.”

In terms of sale prices, fluctuations have been negligible in all categories of residences, with no changes greater than 3%. The month ended with the average single family home price sitting at $440, 573 comparable to the month previous which ended at $439,982. This is a small 3% drop from last year’s average of $453, 748. Condominiums, though showing declines elsewhere, rose 1% to an average of $254, 555, which is nearly identical to last year’s prices .Lastly, Duplex/rowhouses showed gains across the board of 3% month over month and 1.5% year over year.

“Consumer confidence amongst home buyers in Edmonton and surrounding areas remains strong and is reflected by increased unit sales in the single family detached and duplex/rowhouse categories,” Sedgwick said. “Relative to other markets in Alberta, Edmonton’s resale housing market is solid.”

Residential average days of market were 54 at month end, a two week increase from April, but just an 8 day increase from this time last year. Single family homes averaged 51 days on market, while condominiums and duplex/rowhouse averaged a longer 59 days.

Spring in YEG means a busy real estate market.

Spring season is a bustling time in the city, and the real estate market is no exception. As the sun comes out and melts the snow that makes the thought of hauling boxes in a blizzard so terribly unappealing, sellers and buyers alike have a renewed sense of enthusiasm.

March 2016 saw an unprecedented 63% increase in residences sold. The promise of better weather saw 1364 properties sold in contrast to the 837 bought in February. In year over year comparisons this shows a negligible 1.5% decrease from the same time last year, as the Edmonton market proves a continual resiliency in the face of a so called nation-wide economic crisis, with a particular strain on Alberta. Of the 1364 property transactions last month, condominiums represented 335 of those and the duplex/rowhouse market represented 144 properties. This shows a respective rise of 44% and 82% in these markets.

Just as the winter lull was predicted this March influx was expected seasonally.  “Sales, relative to last month, were consistent with the seasonal trends that we expect” comments REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Steve Sedgwick.

However, this positive upward market trend should provide no source of concern to buyers as sale prices remain relatively steady in month over month comparisons. Residential sale prices for March averaged out to $379, 524, a small 3% increase from the month previous, and and even slighter 2% increase from March of 2015 where prices held at $372, 289. A market breakdown of this average shows single family home sales up 0.56% from last year at $439,815, and 4.73% from this February. Condominiums ended the month at $251, 093, up 1.62% from the month previous and 0.55% year over year.

“When looking at housing prices, we have to take into account a number of factors,” Sedgwick said. “Last month, we saw sales of two homes in Edmonton that were priced at more than $3 million dollars. This is the first time that properties at that price point have sold in 2016, and those two sales affected the average price by several thousands of dollars. So it is important that we also look at the median prices as well, to gain a clear picture of the market.”

List prices are also reported as steady month over month and year over year, with a March average of $357,750, a drop of about 1%; the same last year showed an average of $360,000. This also shows a 3% rise from list prices the month previous. Single family home prices increased about 1% to $405, 000, down from $410,000 year over year.

Continues Sedgwick, “Inventory is growing, with more than 3,000 properties coming onto the market last month. Despite the inventory growth, prices are holding steady, with median prices on par with last year, and average prices up slightly due to the sale of high-end luxury homes in March.”

Finally, days on market statistics showed a drop in most all categories of residences, with an average of 53 days on market; 4 days less than the month previous. Single family homes also showed a 4 day drop, down to 49 days on average, and duplex/rowhouses dropping 9 days to an average of 62 days on market. Lastly condominiums were up one day from February of this year, to 58 days.

Rowhouse/Duplex style homes continue to be the superstars of the YEG home market.

In the face of a potential economic crunch for Albertans, do EREB mid-winter sales statistics offer any light at the end of the tunnel? Has the real estate sector yet seen any fallout from this relatively recent downslide? While some areas have shown relative decline, such as condominiums, we continue to see promise in areas of duplex and rowhousing, which remain up in sales, while total number of property sales also remains strong.

REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Geneva Tetreault summarizes her big takeaway on the year overall,

“2015 was a steady year for real estate in Edmonton. Edmonton and the surrounding areas experienced a decline in sales due to economic uncertainty, but we saw a slight increase in price that demonstrated that the market remained relatively stable. This began to cool in the fall months as inventory remained higher than normal.”

These expected patterns indicate the real estate market is following the largely predictable up and down cycle we see recurring year after year, and therefore provides an optimistic outlook about the market’s relative economic resilience.

As reported by the EREB, the cooling of December prices was not only “seasonally normal” but proved advantageous to potential home buyers. Total residential sale prices dropped a slight 0.9% from November of 2015, with the average price of a single family detached home decreasing to $424, 629 (compared to November’s $432, 862). Condominium prices decreased 1.8% to $248, 956 yet duplex/rowhouses reported a whopping 10% increase in price up to $374, 217. These prices are in fact up, in year over year comparisons. The year ended with average single family home prices up 1% from the year previous, and all residential properties up an average of 1.5% total. This is an area where even condominiums showed a slight increase (about 0.5% from the year previous). The 2015 condominum average sale price was up tp $252, 954, and single family homes rose to $437, 569, while all residential properties averaged out at $372, 511.

The sales to listings ratio for the year was 54% (evening out slightly from 2014 when it was 16% higher) while average days on market were up only 4 days from the year previous, to 51 days. Inventory continued to dominate throughout 2015, with year end inventory at a staggering 5,088 properties.  In comparison, at the end of 2014, year end inventory was at 3059 available MLS properties.

The new year continues to carry forward 2015’s trends of high inventory, and in ever increasing buyers market. Tetrault comments on these trends,

“We continued to see home buyers take advantage of low mortgage rates. An influx of listings at the beginning of the year, meant that buyers had a larger selection of homes and were able to take more time selecting properties than in previous years. We continue to see a tight market in the popular $400,000 price range for single family homes.”

Overall, 2015 MLS sales were down about 9% from the year previous, however it should be emphasized that this drop still shows a 1% increase over 2013 numbers. Single family homes represented this average, with a 9% decrease, while condos showed a decline in sales of around 13%. The ever popular rowhouse/duplex category continued to dominate the market with a rise in sales of 6%. In total Edmonton realtors reported 17,298 residential sales via MLS last year.

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“Lower oil prices have created economic uncertainty in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This will hold back growth in housing starts in both of these provinces in 2015 and 2016 before improving economic conditions provide some gains in 2017.”  Lai Sing Louie, CMHC’s Regional Economist stated on Thursday.

“The economic and housing market outlook for the Prairie region continues to be adversely impacted by low commodity prices.”

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has released their Prairie Highlights from the 4th quarter edition of 2015’s Housing Market Outlook. The document highlights a significant trend in housing starts for 2016, showing a decline in all three of the prairie provinces.

Housing starts are expected to see a decline across the prairies.

[CLICK HERE to read up on Housing Starts and their economic significance as outlined by CNBC.]

While 2015 housing starts are estimated at 48,600 they are expected to dip as low as 32,900 potentially in 2016. Starting in 2017, however, these numbers are projected to increase up to 51,200. Alberta will see the largest decline throughout 2016, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan are predicted to stabilized earlier.

In Alberta specifically, the 2015 number will be closer to 37,200; that’s an 8% decline from 2014. The province will see a 2016 drop to as low as 23,700 or as high as an optimistic 35,900. Economic factors make predictions into 2017 difficult with a large variable range from 23,400 to 37,200.

According the the CMHC Prairie Highlights,

“Economic uncertainty has lowered resale transactions in oil-producing areas. In Alberta, resale transactions are projected to decline approximately twenty per cent in 2015. With oil prices assumed to gradually rise over the next two years, resales are forecasted to gradually improve to range between 53,700 and 63,500 in 2016 and between 54,400 and 65,600 in 2017.”

The larger overall impact of this unique real estate environment means conditions will favour the buyer in Alberta in particular and also Saskatchewan. A major contributing factor includes predictions of lower residential prices. Average sale prices for 2016 are expected to fall between $373,000 and $409,600. A rebounding 2017 is predicting this range to grow from between $379,00 to $419,800.

The following chart published by the CMHC offers a statistical breakdown of prairie province predictions:

Autumn has arrived in YEG.

The EREB is currently reporting a mild to moderate dip in sales thus far into the fall season. The Board however is emphasizing that this decline has not affected sale prices, which have slipped less than one percentage point from the same time last year. The drop in sales year-over-year is slightly less negligible at 6.76%. REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Geneva Tetrault has a message of reassurance, “The strength of prices in the Edmonton market is an excellent indication that we are maintaining stability.”

This is the first dip of many we are seeing as the Edmonton CMA moves out of fall and into the winter months. Tetrault goes on to address these relevant seasonal changes,

“We will likely see prices continue to dip as we move into the colder months. Real Estate in Edmonton has a very seasonal trend and colder months always mean fewer sales. We may see buyers take advantage of this trend and benefit from low interest rates while they still can.”

Compared to September 2014, single family home sales and condominiums have both dropped over 9% year-over-year (9.72% and 9.07% respectively), yet duplex/rowhouses, consistently this year’s top seller, maintain their market strength showing numbers rising above 17%.

As mentioned, average sale prices have been negligibly affected, with percentage change remaining in the low single digits. September’s single family home price average was $432, 150, showing a 1.75% drop from the month previous and 0.98% down year-over-year. Condominiums remained fairly stable at $252,953, only dropping 0.68% from August, and 1.05% from last September. Duplex and rowhouses continue to capture the market spotlight, both month over month and year over year figures rising, to an average of $264,203. That shows a 2.76% increase from the month previous and 4.28% from September 2014.

There continues to be no shortage of inventory in the Edmonton CMA with 7,108 properties on market at the time of reporting. This is a slight 1.65% decline from August numbers, but still shows a steep increase of 47.71% over inventory last fall season.

“Buyers continue to see the benefits of a healthy inventory but we haven’t seen many sellers dropping prices significantly in order to compete. Last year’s market and its low inventory made buyers feel pressure to jump into an offer if they found something they like. We are seeing buyers take a little more time in the decision making process this year.” Tetrault continues, explaining her optimism for fall buyers.

CLICK HERE to connect with and Edmonton CMA Real Estate Agent.

Though August 2015 sales statistics show a slight decrease of about 0.2% in average residential home prices in month over month comparisons, prices have actually increased since this time last year, but only about 1%. Geneva Tetrault, Chair of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton explains the comparatively plateauing market,

“Edmonton continues to experience a relatively stable market with respect to year-over-year prices.  A slower pace of sales, combined with growing inventories, are creating favourable conditions for entering the Edmonton market.”

In the single family home category, listings were selling for an average of $439,829 up both from the month previous and year over year, but both increases by only a percentage point or less. The total average for all residential categories was $372,254, showing a 0.2% month over month decrease, but up 1% since last summer’s numbers.

The EREB has stated that “sales continue to lag behind last year” but have emphasized that duplex/rowhouses have managed to remained somewhat economically immune. This invulnerability has been attributed to the abundance of availability in this category of residence, which has been a popular choice amongst builders and developers after the city’s recent emphasis on the necessity for infill projects. Sales are up 1.7% and prices are up 1.53% since this time last year for duplex and row houses. On the other end of the spectrum, condominiums are experiencing the largest decline in sales and average prices year over year, down 7.7% and 2.8% respectively.

“While there is no doubt that oil prices and the resulting economic slowdown have impacted the housing market, Edmonton has been able to weather these changes better than other Alberta markets.” Explains an optimistic Tetrault. “New developments and projects both in the city and outlying areas have kept the housing market moving.”

On the listing front, inventory numbers continue to surprise and impress. Though residential listings are down 6.3% from last month, they are up a whopping 26.9% compared with August of last year. The EREB is reporting just under 5 months supply of inventory currently in the Edmonton CMA with 7,227 listings, a 35% from last summer.

“We have a great selection of inventory this year, a luxury we did not have last year. Sellers may have to wait a little longer to sell their houses but they should still be getting a good price for their house. Buyers can take more time to select their home and have more choice than they would have last year.”

Residential sales saw a decrease of about 5.6% year over year, with single family homes specifically down 4.3%. Days on market was up in August to an average of 54. Single family homes DOM rose to 52, up from July’s 48. Condominiums averaged 56 days, just two more from the month previous, and duplex/rowhouses averaged about 52 days to sell.

Cooler nights and falling leaves all suggest summer in the city is quickly drawing to a close. Edmontonians are acutely aware just how little of the season we get to experience up north but also how to best take advantage of our few warm days. If you feel like you’ve dwindled the summer away, fear not. We’ve compiled a list of all the best events happening this weekend right here in town:

The Edmonton Airshow

Truly all ages, this is a great event for families with kids, adults, and aviations buffs alike. From Saturday August 22 to Sunday August 23 out at Villeneuve Airport, the show runs from 10 am to 6 pm both days. Showcasing a combination of modern avionics and the rich history of flight, the event will host aerobatic performances to awe and delight.

The Edmonton Blues Festival

View from Edmonton Blues Fest. Image Courtesy of Explore Edmonton.

Hosted in Hawrelak Park’s Heritage Amphitheatre, this long running Edmonton institution is not to be missed.  Featuring Grammy, Juno, and IBC winners, this superstar lineup makes this event the ‘premier blues festival in Western Canada’. The shows run August 21-23 and there are a variety of weekend and daily ticket packages available for every level of fan from casual observer to diehard.

Edmonton International Fringe Theatre Festival

There’s still time to catch the last few days of Fringe, which runs right up until this Sunday night!  And in this case last certainly does not mean least. The entire weekend (and week leading up to it) is jam packed with professional calibre theatre performances across multiple venues in the Strathcona area, street performers, kids fringe activities, and of course festival food (the deep fried mars bars are not to be missed).

Art Gallery of Alberta

Since its state of the art renovations, the shiny new AGA (formerly Edmonton Art Gallery) has been host to world class exhibitions from Warhol to Degas to Toulouse-Leutrec. Of the 8 current, stunning exhibitions they have on display, this Sunday is the last day for the long running Jack Bush Retrospective exhibit. An amazing showcase of the Canadian abstract painter’s talents, truly considered a vanguard in the ‘colour field’ movement. Also not to be missed, the breathtaking Italian Baroque Masterworks exhibition, and another highlight, “The Double Bind” which represents a juxtaposition of modern and postmodern works.

Al Fresco, the 104th Street Community Block Party

Both ends of 104th street, North and South of Jasper Ave will be closed of for this spectacular community based event. This will allow extended patio seating for Promenade district restaurants and cafes, and allow for food trucks, and on street programming that includes DJ’s, live music, and a wine garden! Fundraising events include a silent auction for the Edmonton Food Bank, who will also be on hand  accepting donations. Even the 104th Street 7-11 is involved, vowing to give out free slurpees all day long. Who can say no to free icy treats???

Strathearn Drive Home in Edmonton

According to reports released by EREB earlier this month, the most notable real estate sale statistic has been June’s increase in year-over-year sales. This is the first instance we have seen this year of monthly reported sales eclipsing those of 2014.

While June of 2014 saw a reported 1961 residences sold in the Edmonton census metropolitan area, this year the market saw 2008 homes sold,  a small increase of 2.4%. The breakdown of residential property styles sold shows an overwhelming popularity of duplex/row houses, of which sales increased over 11% from this time last year, followed by single family dwellings at 2.1%, and finally condominiums with the smallest change at 1.6%. The largest statistical change reported for the month of June were the increase in sales from the previous month of May 2015 showing a 13% growth.

However, though EREB acknowledges that this shows clear market growth, the fact we are seeing this year over year increase so late in 2015 is largely indicative of an overall slowing of the market, which we are only now seeing the results of.

“The reality of what we are seeing in the market is that the slight hesitation from buyers that came with the drop in oil prices is lessening. Edmonton has not been hit nearly as bad as what many predicted and buyers are becoming more confident that our market won’t plummet. This renewed confidence coupled with low mortgage rates and a healthy selection means that people are realizing that this is still a good time to buy.” Explains REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Geneva Tetreault.

Inventory, which so heavily influenced late spring and early summer market numbers, remains high with 7177 listings on the market at the end of June, though likely due to higher june sales figures, is still less than the 7303 reported at the end of May 2015. Inventory continues to remain higher in year over year comparisons, up 7.7%.

As far as pricing, which has seemingly been unaffected by high inventory numbers, we’ve seen only a 0.8% drop from the month previous for all residential listing costs. Single family homes have seen a 2% increase in year over year figures, currently averaging $444, 862. The same 2% increase was seen in duplex/rowhouses, despite their rising popularity, while condominiums are showing no change at $255, 662 on average. 

“We finally saw prices take the expected small dip month over month that we have been waiting to see due to lower sales and higher inventory. Prices still remain higher than the same time last year and with sales ramping up again and inventory starting to settle, we likely won’t see our prices drop much more than this,” explains Tetreault.

Lastly there has been a slight increase in average days on market; residential properties in general spent an average 49 days on the market. Condominiums had the highest report DOM at 52, followed by the 50 days for Duplex/rowhouses, and 46 for single family homes (up from 43). These increases have likely been influenced by the combination of sale prices and inventory surpluses.

“People move when their lifestyle warrants a change. This will always be true. There are always buyers and sellers, no matter what the market looks like or what analysts predict. REALTORS® are here to help you decide what move is best for you.” Concludes Tetrault.

CLICK HERE to search for a property or find out about listing your home with our qualified realtors. 

The Edmonton Real Estate Board has released their sales statistics for May, and while not totally unpredictable, they shows an interesting mix of trends. Though previous months coming into spring have all been strongly affected by inventory, this major factor has started to stabilize in the face of rising list prices.

Though the city currently has nearly 30% more residential properties listed, the market has begun to show signs of plateauing in this trend– which showed a 2% decrease in new listings this May compared to the same time last year.  Now, well into June, this slight decline is expected to continue into the later summer months.

Days on market is a key factor in this slowing trend. With previously skyrocketing inventory, sales were forced to slow, causing an even greater surplus. Now with a saturated market, economy dictated that inventory would eventually begin decreasing.

“As expected, the average days on market is up four days year-over-year and one day over last month at 45. We can expect this number to continue to grow due to slower sales and higher inventory.” describes REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Geneva Tetrault.

The EREB latest market report details that the May average for days on market was 43 for single family homes, 49 for condominiums, and 45 for row and duplex housing.

However, historically summer is generally the busiest time for real estate, and sales trends are starting to reflect the seasonal change coming into June. May 2015 reported 1,784 residential sales, showing a 12% increase from April 2015. Due to market inventory, year over year trends are still showing decreases in reported sales from the same time last year. Overall residential sales are down 10% when compared with May of  2014, with the exception of duplex and row housing which has increased 4% – likely influenced by Edmonton’s booming infill initiative. Tetrault comments,

“Last month we were down 13% year-over-year in all residential sales. This month we are down less than 10%. We expect this trend of increased sales to continue as confidence in the stability of the market grows.”

Tetrault goes on to explain current sales figures,

“We are still seeing multiple offers in popular price brackets. The fact that we haven’t seen a decline in prices is giving buyers more assurance. They are venturing back into the market with the feeling that prices won’t plummet any time soon.”

Sale prices showed a steady incline well into May, with the overall residential average at $381,111, a 2% increase from the same time last year. Single family dwellings showed a 3% increase whilst condominiums were up 2% year over year. Conversely to inventory sales figures, duplex and row housing showed a slight decline in pricing, down around 2% from May 2014

Tetrault concludes,

“People are continuing to take advantage of low interest rates and a greater selection in the marketplace. We are moving into our busiest season for real estate. Your local REALTOR® can help you find what you are looking for in the neighbourhood that best suits your needs.”

If you are interested in buying or selling an Edmonton property, CLICK HERE to connect with an experienced agent.